In conjunction with Egyptian military and diplomatic moves with the neighboring countries of Ethiopia, simultaneous Western warnings came out of any military action targeting the Renaissance Dam; To put Egyptians’ dreams of striking the dam on the path of doubt about the possibility of dealing with it militarily or by other means.
The United States and Europe showed an agreement on a political settlement of the crisis, through an agreed solution between Cairo, Khartoum and Addis Ababa, and on the need to resume negotiations under the auspices of the African Union.
Amid accusations that the West is biased towards Ethiopia in the dam crisis, experts and political analysts agreed that the recent warnings of the United States and the European Union will not push Egypt to back down from securing its “legitimate rights” in the waters of the Nile.
And
Tomorrow, Monday, Cairo and Khartoum will conclude military exercises, the third of their kind, this time bearing the name “Guardians of the Nile,” while the countries of the region are awaiting a tour of the US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman, this week.
Feltman’s visit aims to consult with the leaders of the three countries and carry out diplomatic efforts to help resolve disputes, especially the Renaissance Dam, and to submit a report to US President Joe Biden on steps to resolve these disputes, according to a White House statement.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi reiterated his emphasis on the imperative to reach a fair and balanced agreement on filling and operating the dam at the earliest possible opportunity, stressing – during his visit last Thursday to Djibouti – his country’s rejection of any (Ethiopian) effort to impose the status quo through unilateral measures that do not take into account the interests and rights of my two countries. downstream.
Djibouti is the fifth neighboring country to Ethiopia, with which Egypt has strengthened a degree of military cooperation during the past three months, as it was preceded by Sudan, Uganda, Burundi and Kenya.
On Sunday, the Egyptian military spokesman announced the return of Chief of Staff Mohamed Farid after concluding an official visit to the countries of Kenya and Rwanda, during which he discussed aspects of joint military cooperation and threats that affect national security.
Al-Sisi had considered that the waters of the Nile represented a red line for Egypt, and media figures close to the regime spoke of that Egypt might be forced to carry out a military strike on the dam if the negotiation track did not succeed.
Western warnings
Acting Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Robert Godec warned that any military operation on the dam would be disastrous, noting that his country is looking to resolve the crisis through two phases, the first witnessing communication about the immediate concerns of Egypt and Sudan regarding filling the dam and the second seeking to reach a long-term solution Al-Taweel for the issue of water.
In the same regard, European Union spokeswoman Nabila Masrali told Al-Jazeera that there is no military solution to the crisis, stressing that the position of the European Union and its envoy to the Horn of Africa is in line with that of the United States.
The regional spokeswoman for the US State Department, Geraldine Griffiths, confirmed – during a telephone conversation with the Egyptian broadcaster Ahmed Moussa on the “Echo of the Country” channel – that there is no solution to the crisis through pressure, intervention or a military solution, indicating the continuation of diplomatic consultations to reach a peaceful solution.
Existential issue
In turn, the Egyptian academic and political analyst, Hassan Nafaa, emphasized that the dam crisis is an existential issue, and there are real concerns about the Ethiopian insistence on filling and operating the dam without an agreement.
In statements to Al-Jazeera Net, Nafaa warned that the second filling of the dam means Ethiopia’s ability to fully control the waters of the Nile, and no rights for the two downstream countries, stressing that no one in Egypt will accept this logic.
And he believed that the hope for reaching a real solution or settlement to the crisis gradually fades, and with Ethiopia’s insistence, hitting the dam will be the last solution, while the desire to give a diplomatic solution the opportunity remains full until the end.
Regarding the position of the Egyptian regime, he stressed that “any regime will lose its legitimacy completely, if it gives an Ethiopian the right to control the waters of the Nile,” noting that there are regional and international restrictions and pressures and calculations that must be made.
But he added, “But if Ethiopia insists on its position and goes to the point where it confirms that it will control the waters of the Nile or decide to sell the water to Egypt, then there will be no other solution but to direct a military strike on the body of the dam or to occupy the area in which it was built.”
Regarding the recent Western warnings, Nafeh explained that they do not mean a change, as neither the European Union nor the United States favored addressing the crisis through military action.
He pointed out that the previous statements made by former President Donald Trump – regarding Egypt’s targeting of the Renaissance Dam – were a warning to Addis Ababa more than a green light to strike the dam, and therefore there was no opportunity for military action, pointing out that Trump himself did not take a decisive position towards Ethiopia, as He could.
Possible military action
In turn, professor of international law and former assistant foreign minister Abdullah Al-Ashaal picked up the same thread, stressing that the Egyptian army may take military action regardless of American and other warnings, stressing that they are strange and rejected.
In statements to Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Ashaal considered the American and European statements primarily Israeli warnings and plotted against Egypt to dominate Ethiopia by controlling the Nile River.
However, he added that promoting military action does not have any significance so far, stressing that “the Egyptian government and Sisi will not tolerate before history Egypt’s departure from the road, and neither America nor Europe will benefit them.”
Al-Ashaal indicated that Ethiopia is gaining power over Egypt through American instigation, and at the same time the West does not want a solution or pushing Addis Ababa to sign a binding agreement.
The level of declarations
In the same context, the academic and political analyst, Khairy Omar, ruled out the disappearance of the option of striking the dam militarily, indicating that the deeper the crisis, it is difficult to make a comparison between the available options, and the implementable options are a matter of concerns of the state administration.
With regard to the recent American and European position, Omar indicated – in statements to Al Jazeera Net – that the level of statements does not express a final perception of America or the whole European group, and attributed them to the fact that it may be a Western attempt to feel Cairo’s pulse from targeting and striking the dam.
He added that it may represent an attempt to underestimate the importance of Cairo’s recent diplomatic and military moves, especially as it has low diplomatic representation, and did not come out of large levels such as the US Department of Defense or the US Military Command in Africa (AFRICOM) or the important countries in the European Union.
Khairy Omar ruled out that the Egyptian options had narrowed after these statements, stressing that the Ethiopian dam represents a strategic issue for Egypt.
He also ruled out the existence of a previous opportunity for his country to strike the dam, when Trump made his famous statement, explaining that the circumstance was not suitable for military action at the time, considering that this behavior at the time leads to a military dilemma more than a benefit, as the issue of dealing with the dam is not military, but rather how Contain it.
Military restrictions
As for Hani Raslan, an advisor to the Al-Ahram Center for Political Studies, he considered that the Egyptian position on the dam crisis had previously been announced by Sisi that “there is a red line for compromising Egypt’s water capabilities,” noting that the military exercises in Sudan are directed to Ethiopia because of the dam and the (Ethiopian-Sudanese) border crisis.
Raslan, a senior researcher on African affairs at the center, said that there are two points that represent restrictions on the Egyptian military decision and move. The first is that Washington has expressed that it does not want military action, which could lead to the complete collapse of Ethiopia.
And through his Facebook account, he saw that the American estimates indicate that Ethiopia is on the way to disintegration, so it changed its position on the settlement and began to respond more to the Egyptian positions, and that it wanted to tell Egypt that there is light at the end of the tunnel and that military action should not be rushed.
The second point is – according to Raslan – in the Sudanese position, which is witnessing division and lack of clarity for a complete vision of military action, at a time when the dam is more dangerous to Sudan than Egypt, according to his belief.