Currently, the prevailing estimates indicate that Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) have no interest at the moment in a new military escalation that may develop into a wide war, following the recent confrontation that ended on May 21.
However, the experience of the past years in the relationship between Israel and Gaza shows that small events can turn into a large military conflict. Read also The security situation with the Gaza Strip… What are the possible Israeli scenarios? It includes the reconstruction of Gaza and the cessation of escalation.. Egypt calls for moving the peace process between the Israelis and the Palestinians From the Israeli media.. Demands to put the file of prisoners held by Hamas at the top of the government’s priorities After Netanyahu’s departure, how will the Biden administration deal with the new Israeli government?
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On the other hand, the Israeli occupation army planes bombed Palestinian resistance sites in Gaza for the first time since the ceasefire last month, but no casualties were reported.
This came under the leadership of a new Israeli government led by right-wing Naftali Bennett, who seeks – under pressure from criticism from the right-wing Likud party headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, who left power – to prove that his government is no less right-wing than its predecessor.
political fires
“Five fires erupted (…) in agricultural areas in the Gaza envelope as a result of incendiary balloons. The deterrence built in Operation Fences Guard has died,” Likud leader Yisrael Katz said in a post on Twitter last Friday, referring to the recent war on Gaza.
But the expert on Israeli affairs, Muhammad Majadleh, believes that the previous government did not respond to the incendiary balloons by bombing, “and therefore this government is more extreme, as it is bombing in Gaza in a more fierce way.”
And security affairs analyst in the newspaper “Maariv” Avi Iskharov believes that the new Israeli government is trying to “impose a new equation according to which the bombing will take place, in response to the incendiary balloons that are launched, and to treat it as missiles.”
The previous government used to order air strikes on Gaza, usually in response to the resistance’s rockets, while the incendiary balloons faced it with penalties on the Gaza Strip, including restricting the entry of fuel and goods, closing fishing areas in the Gaza sea, and bombing at other times.
However, Iskharov asserts that neither Israel nor Hamas has an interest in escalation at the present time, and points out that despite what was known about Bennett’s tough stances in dealing with Gaza, he declared that Israel would provide facilities if the calm on the part of the Strip continued.
The security analyst said that launching a military operation or war on Gaza would affect the chances of the government’s survival. “If we assume that Bennett decided to launch a military operation on Gaza, will the United Arab List headed by Mansour Abbas continue to support the government? I don’t know, but I doubt it.” .
The United Arab List is one of the components of the new alliance in Israel, as it supports the Bennett government through its four members of the Knesset.
Calculated steps
On the other hand, Amos Harel, a military affairs analyst in Haaretz newspaper, points out that the Israeli threat of a new escalation put a question mark on the IDF’s claims of victory in the latest confrontation.
And the Israeli journalist said in an article published on Friday that the steps of both sides were calculated.