The political life in Lebanon continues to deteriorate to an unprecedented level of debates between the two teams of President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, who accuse each other of violating the constitutional powers of the other.
After about 8 months of disruption and exhaustion of efforts, both internally and externally, to make the French initiative succeed – which subsequently tasked Hariri with forming an “important” government – the conflicting forces moved to the stage of preparing their preparations for the three crucial goals that Lebanon awaits in 2022, namely the presidential, parliament and municipal elections.
This is what the writer and political analyst Hussein Ayoub concludes, when following up on what is described as the “data war” between the Aoun and Hariri teams, and considers that the two parties have accepted the impossibility of agreeing on the government file, so they went to an electoral speech, by tightening the nerve of their sectarian street.
Abortion last chance
After it was described this week as decisive to determine the fate of the initiative led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, which is based on forming a government of 24 ministers, it seems that its fate is still stuck at the knot of naming Christian ministers, as Aoun’s team insists that Hariri not be allowed to name them.
Following the political debates between the “Free Patriotic Movement” and “Al-Mustaqbal” over the file of forming a government, “Al-Mustaqbal” (headed by Hariri) escalated its attack, describing Aoun’s reign as “the worst era in the history of Lebanon.”
Then came the response from the media office in the Republican Palace today, Wednesday, saying that “Hariri’s continued evasion of his responsibilities in forming a government constitutes a further violation of the constitution and the National Accord Document.”
The succession of statements in response to the response coincided with the visit of Maronite Patriarch Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi to Baabda Palace to meet with President Aoun.
From there, Al-Ra’i announced a remarkable call to form a “poles” government, recalling the government experience led by the late Lebanese President Fouad Chehab, after the 1958 revolution.
What does the government of the poles mean?
Writer and political analyst Radwan Akil explains the content of Al-Ra’i’s call as a new fact that moves the discussion from forming a government of non-partisan specialists to forming a government of political leaders.
He adds that the government of poles is made up of political figures from the first row, but it undermines the content of the French initiative, and Hariri’s approval of it is ruled out, while Bassil and other forces are likely to adopt Rahi’s proposal, on the basis that the sensitivity of the stage calls for the formation of a government of clear and balanced political poles that contribute to the rescue process. .
Akil believes that the international community will not welcome the proposal of Al-Rahi, who seemed more inclined to the President’s team, after the failure of the experiences of national political unity governments.
Aqeel indicated – in a statement to Al Jazeera Net – that Berri received with alarm the stormy response campaigns between the Aoun and Hariri teams, pointing out that his initiative entered the tunnel of stumbling, as a result of the lack of response to it.
The political analyst said that “Bari is still sticking to Hariri, given that his presence at the head of the executive branch is the best option now.”
The scenarios presented
Akil believes that Hariri has two options: either to continue the assignment in the absence of a constitutional mechanism that would withdraw this paper from him, or to go to apologize; To highlight the difficulty of finding an alternative Sunni figure, or finding a model similar to the caretaker prime minister, Hassan Diab.
For his part, Hussein Ayoub believes that the developments of the last hours have established the idea that “there is no government” according to the existing equations, which means an apology or an open assignment; This means that the caretaker government, “whether it becomes early parliamentary elections, or remains on schedule (2022), may continue until the end of the presidency of the republic.”
The Future Movement had previously threatened to resign from Parliament if Hariri apologized, as well as the Lebanese Forces Party headed by Samir Geagea and the Progressive Socialist Party headed by Walid Jumblatt, with the aim of going to early parliamentary elections, as well as Bassil’s team, without any of them presenting a clear vision. for their next steps.
The paradox here – according to Hussein Ayoub – is that those who want early elections do not guarantee their results, such as Basil and Hariri’s leaders, and those who do not want early elections whose results seem almost guaranteed now or after a year, such as the Shiite duo (Hezbollah and the Amal movement).
Ayoub said that the idea of ”early parliamentary elections may take Lebanon into a season of political insanity unprecedented since the 2009 elections.”
Radwan Aqil rules out that the Future Movement will resign from Parliament before coordinating with Berri, because he is not enthusiastic about resignations and early parliamentary elections.
Although the Lebanese are preoccupied with their living concerns – according to Aqeel – the political class can take a large segment of them to the electoral battle, because of its control over its sectarian streets.
Hariri and Saudi Arabia
Hussein Ayoub recalls that throughout the period of Hariri’s assignment, the loss of Saudi cover was his fatal weakness, despite his support from the Emirates and Egypt, as he put it, “as his image shook with the French, without reaching the stage of disengaging from him.”
Therefore, Ayoub does not rule out that the international community will consider an alternative to Hariri on the basis that he did not meet the requirements of the stage.
“As long as Lebanon is in its current situation, it will not impose itself as a priority on the international agenda,” he said, setting an example in Gaza, which did not impose itself on the Americans and the international community except through war, he said.
Ayoub believes that a new French step will be recorded, and “French delegates may head to Lebanon soon, in a new attempt to round corners to prevent the French initiative from falling.”
Also, researcher and political analyst Sarkis Abu Zeid proceeds from the dilemma of mistrust between Hariri and Aoun, and expects – in an interview with Al Jazeera Net – several scenarios for the next stage:
First – in the event that Berri and Al-Ra’i’s efforts to form a government falter, the caretaker government may be floated, as an emergency option, to manage the country’s crisis affairs, pending the maturation of solutions related to settlements in the region.
Second – Registration of resignations from the House of Representatives, followed by the problem of who will take over the transitional government supervising the elections.
Third – Going to dramatic possibilities with the spread of total chaos in the country, to resort to imposing a new role for the army, or forming a military government, especially since Army Commander Joseph Aoun has recently received exceptional international attention, whether by receiving him in France to meet President Emmanuel Macron, or by extending him support A great American, logistically and morally, on the basis that the military institution is the last card for Lebanon’s steadfastness on its own two feet.