The poor performance of French President Emmanuel Macron’s party and the right-wing parties led by Marine Le Pen, in the first round of regional elections, suggests that new candidates could become key players in the 2022 presidential election.
This is what Stratfor concluded in its reading of the results of the recent French regional elections, noting that this new fact may push Macron to avoid any unpopular economic reforms, fearing that this will harm his chances of re-election next year.
It is noteworthy that France will hold the first round of its presidential elections in April 2022, in which the two most popular candidates will compete in the run-off in May 2022.
Stratfor believes that the very low voter turnout and the poor performance of the “Republic on the Move” party indicate that a large proportion of voters abstained from voting, which could harm Macron’s chances of re-election, as only one in three eligible voters participated in the regional elections, which are Lowest participation rate in 6 decades.
According to the American website, it is possible that the French government will refrain from introducing controversial economic reforms in the coming months, and is expected to focus instead on stimulus measures in an attempt to improve its electoral chances.
Stratfor also predicted that Macron’s party’s modest performance in regional elections and voter disappointment would cause the president to avoid any policies that could further damage his re-election prospects, including a controversial reform of the pension system. Instead, he will likely focus on stimulus policies to promote recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.