President Joe Biden’s change of administration in the dates for the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan has left foreign policy circles in Washington in great confusion.
After Biden announced in mid-April that the withdrawal of forces from his country would begin in early May, with the withdrawal process to be completed by September 11, U.S. military officials have confirmed to the New York Times that Washington would withdraw from Afghanistan along with its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies between early and mid-July. Read also The withdrawal from Afghanistan marks a new era in the American strategy of foreign intervention The Wall Street Journal: Pressure on Washington to delay the withdrawal of its forces from Afghanistan The President of Afghanistan writes in Foreign Affairs: The American withdrawal is an opportunity for a precarious peace
Washington has taken steps to withdraw from its longest war in American history after the administration of former President Donald Trump signed a landmark deal with the Taliban in February 2020 in the Qatari capital, Doha .
The original agreement called for the withdrawal of all US and foreign forces before the start of May
Causes and indications of early weaning
The US administration did not justify the reason for the early withdrawal dates, while some of the commentators interviewed by Al Jazeera believed there would be no strategic value for the forces to stay there until the 11th. September.
In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Adam Weinstein, a former warrior in Afghanistan and now an expert on Afghan affairs at the Quincy Institute, said that “it took 20 years to come to a decision to withdraw all US forces because national security Services refused to accept that US forces could not control the situation. “Politics in foreign countries”.
Michael Rubin, former Department of Defense official and US foreign policy expert at the American Enterprise Institute, noted, “A growing awareness within the current administration that President Joe Biden and the Secretary of State Anthony Blinken adopted September 11 as the date to complete the withdrawal. It would do great damage to America and consolidate the symbolic victory of the Taliban. “
Robin said in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net that “accelerating the withdrawal is a way for the administration to avoid adding a double anniversary of victory that Al-Qaeda and its supporters would have p >
Risks and repercussions of premature withdrawal
Two months ago, it was stated in the Interim National Security Strategic Guidebook released by the White House in early March last year that the United States “should not and will not participate in wars Eternals that cost thousands of lives and trillions We will work to end the longest war she has ever fought. America is in Afghanistan responsibly, while ensuring that Afghanistan never again becomes a safe haven for terrorist attacks against the United States. “
Regarding the dangers of an early withdrawal, Rubin stressed that “the cost of withdrawal remains the same, as the Taliban and their regional sponsors in Pakistan can rightly claim victory over a superpower.”
On the contrary, Weinstein believes that “the withdrawal involves risks, but those risks are outweighed by the undeniable drawbacks of the continued presence of our forces in Afghanistan, in a conflict which has no military solution”. p>
Washington says it aimed to eliminate Al Qaeda, and has largely succeeded, as it has realized after all these years of war that the Taliban are part of Afghan society that they cannot not eliminate militarily. News reports indicated that Washington was looking for new areas to station some of its forces after the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The Afghanistan veteran said, “Pakistan has openly and secretly welcomed US forces in the past, and Islamabad’s interests with Washington regarding the fight against terrorism may allow limited US forces to escape. Operating from inside Pakistan, at the same time, Washington is exploring the possibility of allowing some of its forces to station in the countries of Central Asia. “”.
Meanwhile, Rubin asserted that “the major problem facing the United States was the lack of a real strategy to stop the double game for Pakistan from seeking to return as
Concentration in countries neighboring Afghanistan
Robin denied the possibility of relocating US forces to countries neighboring Afghanistan, saying, “Take neighboring countries: Iran certainly cannot do this. Pakistan will only allow a handful of specialized intelligence personnel to operate from inside the US embassy or consulates. “
“At the same time, Russia has already pressured Central Asian countries to refuse to allow US forces to be stationed there after the withdrawal from Afghanistan, despite the spread of rumors about US forces stationed in the area, but in reality US forces will be further away, both on ships or on bases in the Middle East, such as Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar or Camp Arvigan in Kuwait. “
Weinstein did not support the view that the withdrawal of US forces would be followed by Taliban control of all Afghan territory, and argued that “the Taliban may mistakenly believe they have a military advantage to resolve the fighting, but reality will prevail and it will be a civil war that is not in the interests of either party. ”
While the American foreign policy expert at the American Enterprise Institute considered that his country had “achieved its main objective of being in Afghanistan, which is to prevent terrorists from planning from within Afghanistan to launch terrorist attacks against the United States, and in that we were successful. “
Rubin also felt that “the timing of the withdrawal is less important than the withdrawal of the United States itself, completely and unconditionally, which ensures that the Taliban will declare victory.”