The Egyptian diplomatic activity, coinciding with the stalled negotiations of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, and the approaching second filling of the dam lake after less than a month, raised questions about the feasibility of legal moves and international pressures on Addis Ababa, in removing Egypt from the biggest threat to its water security.
Since the inauguration of the dam in 2011, the Egyptian movement has varied between efforts to reach a tripartite settlement, and attempts to internationalize the crisis by inviting international parties such as the United Nations and the United States of America, to the possibility of resorting to military action as a last pressure card, in exchange for Ethiopian procrastination, which he considered Observers strategy to deal with the dam negotiations.
Egypt
There are dilemmas facing Egypt in the international movement, some of which are related to Ethiopia, which is fortified against legal tracks and international pressure under the Declaration of Principles signed by the leaders of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia in 2015, and international sympathy with the latter, claiming that it has been exposed to famines due to drought in the past decades.
As for the Egyptian side, its position has recently been characterized by a kind of hesitation and contradiction in official statements about the repercussions of the dam, in a way that does not work in diplomacy and international law, in contrast to the absence of political will and the differing visions of Cairo and Khartoum on the effects of the dam, according to experts and legal experts.
joint movement and coordination
The past days witnessed two prominent stations in the Egyptian diplomatic moves to confront the Renaissance Dam crisis, as Qatar hosted an Arab ministerial meeting yesterday that dealt with discussing the crisis at the request of Egypt and Sudan, where it was agreed to coordinate work with the international group at the United Nations to support the Egyptian-Sudanese position.
Prior to that, Egypt informed the Security Council of its objection to Ethiopia’s intention to fill the dam, through a letter delivered last Friday by Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry.
Egypt has deposited an integrated file with the council, to serve as a reference to the international community for the constructive positions that Egypt has taken over a decade of negotiations and efforts to reach an agreement that takes into account the interests of the three countries, according to a statement by the Egyptian Foreign Ministry.
This was preceded by an Egyptian-Sudanese assertion – in a joint statement – of the importance of coordinating their efforts internationally and regionally to push Ethiopia to negotiate seriously on the dam.
specific demands
According to Academic Abbas Sharaki, Professor of Water Resources at Cairo University, it is expected that Egypt’s letter to the Security Council will follow its announcement of specific demands, noting that Sudan will submit a similar letter with the same content to the Council.
These demands, according to Sharaki, are represented by the Ethiopian side stopping the procedures for storing the dam’s water, and the Security Council assuming its competencies in maintaining international peace and security by sponsoring the negotiations, sparing the region from serious risks, and reaching a just agreement in a timely manner.
With regard to the Arab ministerial meeting in Doha, Sharaki affirmed that it represents support for the water security of Egypt and Sudan, and considered it an integral part of Arab national security, in a post on his Facebook account.
The feasibility of international action
In response to the feasibility of legal action and international pressure to get Egypt out of the dam crisis, Professor of International Law and former Assistant Foreign Minister Abdullah Al-Ashaal stressed that legal action is constantly coming, but it requires will at the level of political decision, which the Egyptian administration does not currently have, according to him.
Criticizing the performance of the Egyptian regime in the dam file, Al-Ashal added that the crisis is not on the international side, but rather in Egypt and the way it presented its legal position to the United Nations, the Security Council or the West.
In statements to Al Jazeera Net, the former diplomat continued that after more than 10 years of negotiations, there is no clear and explicit memorandum explaining the Egyptian position, which is still sensitive to its position in front of its Ethiopian counterpart, which encouraged Addis Ababa to move forward with its intransigence in front of Egyptian concerns.
With regard to the possibility of Egypt extracting an international decision in its favor in this crisis, he considered that the international decision is of no value at the present time, calling on the West to find an alternative to the difficult Egyptian position, after its warnings against military action against the dam, and the Ethiopian side’s bullying of the West.
With the second filling approaching less than a month later, Al-Ashaal warned against consuming more time in useless negotiations and demands, but added that going to the Security Council could be a step that precedes the preparation of a military solution.
He explained that any diplomatic or military action requires good preparation, skill and wide diplomatic coverage, stressing that Egypt has no choice but to demolish the dam after Ethiopia used up previous negotiations in building the dam and filling its lake.
It is worth noting that the independent news website Mada Masr reported last Thursday that “Cairo and Khartoum agreed to avoid escalation or military threat in the Renaissance Dam file, pending US support,” quoting an Egyptian government source in the Renaissance Dam’s working group, which he did not name.
Filling and solutions
For his part, Ibrahim Nawar, a researcher specializing in international disputes and economic relations, said that the Egyptian position has been characterized by hesitation in the recent period, with regard to the extent of the damage, pointing to contradictions in official statements about the dam’s repercussions on Egypt’s water share.
Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Nawar made it clear that hesitation is not helpful in diplomacy and international legal moves, stressing that the solution requires serious treatment from the Egyptian regime, by providing conclusive evidence based on evidence and required arguments, to mobilize the international community and discuss it internationally.
He also considered that the Egyptian proposal differs from its Sudanese counterpart, which is based on the logic of caution and caution based on the risks of filling and operating the dam and the flow of the Nile, and its repercussions on its small dams and the possibility of harming Sudanese villages and cities along the river.
There are other mistakes that hinder the Egyptian international movement – according to Nawar – represented in the failure to provide joint solutions with the Sudanese and Ethiopian sides, through evidence proving the ownership and common benefit of the Nile Basin countries, calling for not to cling to talking about the historical right to the Nile waters, which is not recognized by the world.
As for going to the United Nations and notifying the Security Council of Egyptian concerns about the unilateral filling of the dam, the researcher in international disputes explained that the international organization had previously studied the situation and decided to mediate on a technical basis, without putting pressure on one of the parties.
And ruling out joint Egyptian-Sudanese steps in the coming period, he considered that the recent joint ministerial statement between Cairo and Khartoum is not new because of the different positions, stressing that even in the event of Cairo and Khartoum agreeing on the same demands, they must first agree with the Ethiopian side.
He also ruled out Egypt’s success in extracting an international and legal decision in its favour, or taking military action against the dam, which might threaten to flood Sudan.
He explained that the world sympathizes with Ethiopia for its exposure to famines due to drought and fluctuations in rainfall in recent decades, and considering its efforts to build the dam to reorganize water and electricity consumption, at a time when Egypt could have given it from the beginning in light of a large surplus of electric power.